聯儲局突加貼現率0.25厘
Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 1:34 pm
美國又出手, 有人說係為為退市部署. 其實佢既做法只係形式多於實際. 我在其他forum看到一篇比較具體的評論, 引來供大家參考:
"Actually Soros said "Ultra low interest rate makes xxx ..., a lot of bubbles. And the Ultimate bubble is gold." I guess that he means when everything else (bonds, paper money, stocks, real estate, OTC derivatives, ...) collapses, gold will be the last man standing. So gold will even rise against all the other commodities to a level that is much higher than the historical average. Maybe that is the gold bubble. (eg. gold vs CRB to an unprecedented high)
After 2010, US fed gov debt will be 14T, and 15T for 2011 if no more bailout. If the yield for bonds goes up, eg. 5% for TNX and 6% for TYX, then the annual interest payment for this debt will be 15T*(4%~6%), at least 30% of gov revenue. (GDP growth is driven by gov spending for non-profit projects. As long as private sector shrinks, Alt-A, option ARM, commercial real estate, ... lots of things to prevent americans from spending. And no spending means no GDP for US. And no tax to get.)
Since US debt has a large portion of short-term debt (1-month, 3-month, 6-month), it has to roll over again every 2 years. Now they want to sell more long-term debt, which will lead to higher yield for TNX and TYX. So, the proportion of annual interest payment to gov't revenue will continue to go up. Market won't be silly enough to let that figure rise to 50% while still holding dollars.
Someone said budget/revenue > 140% is the red line. If deficit goes to 40% and remains several years, HYPERINFLATION is guaranteed. US already goes > 140%. Gov't revenue is around 2.1T. Budget is 3.8T+, if more bailout, more social security, medicare ...:096:
Even Paul Volcker's 20% IR can't save the dollar. Because that will make US treasury bankrupt. So Ben won't raise the interest rate too high. GS said he even won't raise the rate before 2012. Just use the discount rate (0.75%) to fool us."
Source: http://www.uwants.com/viewthread.php?ti ... d134829647
"Actually Soros said "Ultra low interest rate makes xxx ..., a lot of bubbles. And the Ultimate bubble is gold." I guess that he means when everything else (bonds, paper money, stocks, real estate, OTC derivatives, ...) collapses, gold will be the last man standing. So gold will even rise against all the other commodities to a level that is much higher than the historical average. Maybe that is the gold bubble. (eg. gold vs CRB to an unprecedented high)
After 2010, US fed gov debt will be 14T, and 15T for 2011 if no more bailout. If the yield for bonds goes up, eg. 5% for TNX and 6% for TYX, then the annual interest payment for this debt will be 15T*(4%~6%), at least 30% of gov revenue. (GDP growth is driven by gov spending for non-profit projects. As long as private sector shrinks, Alt-A, option ARM, commercial real estate, ... lots of things to prevent americans from spending. And no spending means no GDP for US. And no tax to get.)
Since US debt has a large portion of short-term debt (1-month, 3-month, 6-month), it has to roll over again every 2 years. Now they want to sell more long-term debt, which will lead to higher yield for TNX and TYX. So, the proportion of annual interest payment to gov't revenue will continue to go up. Market won't be silly enough to let that figure rise to 50% while still holding dollars.
Someone said budget/revenue > 140% is the red line. If deficit goes to 40% and remains several years, HYPERINFLATION is guaranteed. US already goes > 140%. Gov't revenue is around 2.1T. Budget is 3.8T+, if more bailout, more social security, medicare ...:096:
Even Paul Volcker's 20% IR can't save the dollar. Because that will make US treasury bankrupt. So Ben won't raise the interest rate too high. GS said he even won't raise the rate before 2012. Just use the discount rate (0.75%) to fool us."
Source: http://www.uwants.com/viewthread.php?ti ... d134829647