聯儲局突加貼現率0.25厘

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willy
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聯儲局突加貼現率0.25厘

Postby willy » Fri Feb 19, 2010 1:34 pm

美國又出手, 有人說係為為退市部署. 其實佢既做法只係形式多於實際. 我在其他forum看到一篇比較具體的評論, 引來供大家參考:

"Actually Soros said "Ultra low interest rate makes xxx ..., a lot of bubbles. And the Ultimate bubble is gold." I guess that he means when everything else (bonds, paper money, stocks, real estate, OTC derivatives, ...) collapses, gold will be the last man standing. So gold will even rise against all the other commodities to a level that is much higher than the historical average. Maybe that is the gold bubble. (eg. gold vs CRB to an unprecedented high)

After 2010, US fed gov debt will be 14T, and 15T for 2011 if no more bailout. If the yield for bonds goes up, eg. 5% for TNX and 6% for TYX, then the annual interest payment for this debt will be 15T*(4%~6%), at least 30% of gov revenue. (GDP growth is driven by gov spending for non-profit projects. As long as private sector shrinks, Alt-A, option ARM, commercial real estate, ... lots of things to prevent americans from spending. And no spending means no GDP for US. And no tax to get.)

Since US debt has a large portion of short-term debt (1-month, 3-month, 6-month), it has to roll over again every 2 years. Now they want to sell more long-term debt, which will lead to higher yield for TNX and TYX. So, the proportion of annual interest payment to gov't revenue will continue to go up. Market won't be silly enough to let that figure rise to 50% while still holding dollars.

Someone said budget/revenue > 140% is the red line. If deficit goes to 40% and remains several years, HYPERINFLATION is guaranteed. US already goes > 140%. Gov't revenue is around 2.1T. Budget is 3.8T+, if more bailout, more social security, medicare ...:096:

Even Paul Volcker's 20% IR can't save the dollar. Because that will make US treasury bankrupt. So Ben won't raise the interest rate too high. GS said he even won't raise the rate before 2012. Just use the discount rate (0.75%) to fool us."

Source: http://www.uwants.com/viewthread.php?ti ... d134829647

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Re: 聯儲局突加貼現率0.25厘

Postby beaniebean » Sun Feb 21, 2010 1:22 am

唔, 什麼是貼現率? 於是我在網上找了以下資料, 明白多了少少...

貼現率 (Discount Rate)

貼現率,是中央銀行為商業銀行貼現票據、融通資金時所收取的貸款息率,即商業銀行向中央銀行借取資金的借貸成本。

在香港,貼現率由金管局因應市場變化而每日作出公佈,這與美國聯邦貼現率(Federal Discount Rate)需由聯邦公開市場委員會參考了一系列經濟數據才向市場公佈的做法,有所不同。

隨著貼現窗(discount window)制度推出,自1992年6月開始推行的流動資金調節機制(簡稱LAF)即被撤銷,因金管局不打算延續拆入(借入)銀行額外流動資金這做法,金管局期望這樣可以增加市場流動資金。貼現窗機制取代了流動資金調節機制後,“拆出利率”(offer rate)就由“基本利率”(base rate)所替代。

經過東南亞金融風暴及香港銀行同業拆息曾經挾高至三百厘後,香港的投資者對息口的變化較前敏感。各類息口中,貼現率正好反映銀行銀根的短線情況,可作為投資者研究參考的數據。


Source: http://td.hkii.org/investu/168ch4/4-7.php


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